Illinois State Redbirds Going Wrong Way Since Conference Play Started

During their non-conference slate, Illinois State came ever so close to defeating Louisville on the road and almost handed Wyoming their first loss this season, so expectations were very high in Normal. Dan Muller, first year coach of Illinois State, had fueled the Redbirds' rise, pumping up Jackie Carmichael and his potential double-double for the season, and virtually the same team returned from the 2012 version that defeated Wichita State in the MVC tournament and almost kept Creighton from the conference's automatic bid. However, since conference play began at the end of December, the Redbirds have struggled mightily, culminating in a recent loss to Missouri State.

ISU's winless start was far from expected during the preseason so we have to wonder what is happening in Normal? For starters, Muller's squad is sending teams frequently to the stripe; during OOC, ISU's defensive free throw rate was 35.1 percent -- an indication that ISU was playing decent but not outstanding defense. That rate has now spiked to 39.6. One defensive tendency that Muller was forcing turnovers; opponents gave the ball away on nearly a quarter of their possessions, but ISU isn't generating the same sort of pressure in Missouri Valley action. The four teams have used roughly 267 offensive possessions, and are committing a giveaway on just 18.7 percent of those trips.

The Redbirds made waves with their spectacular offense, specifically their two-point field goal percentage. Per Ken Pomeroy, ISU was converting nearly 56 percent of their twos, a fantastic offensive display that has since fallen apart. Through four games, the squad has used 273 possessions and is scoring .95 points per trip. ISU's aggressiveness has slacked in the half-court, and in the past two games, the team has attempted a paltry 15 free throws combined. It was evident against Missouri State that there are some serious issues with ISU; Tyler Brown, who attempts 27.5 percent of ISU's shots, managed to take just two field goals and was held scoreless.

While a tilt against Drake is on the horizon, a game that should garner ISU's first MVC win, the Redbirds will then have to travel to Wichita to face Gregg Marshall's squad.